In this video, George Goncalves discusses the evolving dynamics of the US labour market and the implications of continued large‑scale fiscal stimulus. He examines the unemployment rate relative to the natural rate and explores the sustainability of running the economy “hot" when job growth remains subdued.

Key points (with timestamps)

• 03:39 – Unemployment approaching the natural rate historically signals recession risk—yet current indicators remain inconsistent.
• 04:28 – Run‑it‑hot fiscal policy is temporarily boosting activity under the Trump administration.
• 05:29 – Large deficits and rising global competition for capital could keep interest rates elevated.

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