In this 2026 outlook video blog, Derek Halpenny, George Goncalves, Lin Li and Lee Hardman provide a global overview of how fiscal sustainability pressures, labour market dynamics, China's fiscal recalibration and emerging‑market political cycles are shaping FX markets in the year ahead.

The speakers outline the shift toward increasingly expansionary fiscal stances across major economies, explore how markets are absorbing the associated risks, and identify where vulnerabilities—and opportunities—may emerge across G4 and EM currencies.

Four Key Market Themes for 2026 Title

Key Themes (with timestamps)

  • 00.25 – Debt Sustainability Risks & Fiscal Policy - a G4 FX perspective
  • 03.35 – US Tepid Job Market vs Run it Hot Fiscal Policy
  • 05.49 – China 2026 Fiscal Strategy: Striking a Dynamic Balance Among Three Key Objectives
  • 09.18 – Where are Fiscal Risks Greater for Emerging Market Currencies?

You can view more insights from Global Markets Research on their dedicated website.

Listen to our podcasts on mufgemea.podbean.com or your preferred streaming service. We publish four times each week with insight from EMEA, Japan, the U.S. and MENA.