In this video, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses the outlook for the U.S. dollar following the recent U.S election, analysing the potential impacts of macroeconomic challenges such as higher debt-to-GDP ratios, elevated inflation, and the strongest dollar levels since 1984. He also explores the implications of key Treasury appointments in the Trump administration, highlighting how trade policy decisions could shape market dynamics and influence dollar appreciation.

Derek also considers the role of aggressive trade tariffs, potential European retaliation, and their effects on Eurodollar movements, with insights into rate expectations and inflationary pressures shaping global currency markets.

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Key points

  • 00:24 - Is the FX market reaction to Donald Trump's election victory as MUFG had expected?
  • 02:08 - Are there potential market implications we can draw at this stage from Trump's cabinet picks?
  • 03:29 - Is the 'Trump Trade' in FX now complete or is there more to come?

You can view more insights from Global Markets Research on their dedicated website.

Listen to our podcasts: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast and The MUFG Global Markets Podcast on Fridays.

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