The FOMC's economic projection for 2020 was especially pessimistic at their June 9-10 meeting, leading some Staff to examine the suitability of super accommodative policies, such as negative interest rates or yield curve control. Since that meeting, the outcomes of U.S. economic data has been strong, easily beating the consensus estimate.
Our models currently forecast growth of +29.00% over the third quarter, with a carry on growth of +2.00% in the fourth quarter, or possibly stronger. If our forecast proves accurate, then real GDP growth is significantly outpacing either the consensus estimate or the FOMC's core projection. At what point will Wall Street and the FOMC catch up to our model's forecast for the economy? Perhaps at the Jackson Hole Symposium? And, in this dynamic environment, is it likely that Chair Powell proves not to be as uber-dovish as forward markets and many strategists suggest?
In this episode, MUFG Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews this week's virtual Jackson Hole Symposium and discusses what our model is currently forecasting. He also gives listeners an update on his core strategic investment stance of a 2s-30s yield curve steepener.