Payroll gains in July were solid at +1.763mm, higher than consensus estimate (+1.500 million) but close to our forecast of +1.650mm. Similarly, GDP was better than consensus expectations of -34.8% but close to our -32.5% forecast. Moreover, we expect another better than consensus GDP print in the 3rd quarter and for the year-end U3 unemployment rate to be near 8.39%. If that's the case, why are we so worried about the outlook for employment and growth going forward?
In this episode, MUFG Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, reviews July employment and Q2 GDP reports and tells listeners what these mean for the labor market and growth going forward. He also offers his take on the upcoming U.S. election and gives listeners an update on his core strategic investment stance of a 2s-30s yield curve steepener.