As the year draws to a close, the US dollar faces a critical juncture. While the resolution of the record-breaking government shutdown offers some relief, economic indicators remain fragile. Rising job cuts and historically low consumer confidence highlight ongoing pressure on households.

In this video, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, provides his outlook on how labour market weakness, evolving Federal Reserve policy, and trade uncertainty could influence currency movements into year-end. Expectations for further rate cuts, potential changes in Fed leadership, and legal challenges to tariff measures add to volatility risks.

Derek also explores seasonal trends that historically point to dollar softness in December. With three non-farm payroll reports still ahead, investors should prepare for sharp market swings as policy shifts and economic resilience are tested.

Watch the full analysis in the video below.

Key points

• 00:26 - The US government shutdown looks to be coming to an end - is this good news for the US economy and the financial markets?
• 01:56 - The US dollar has advanced by close to 4% since mid-September. Do you think this rally will be sustained or peter out?
• 03:25 - And where do you see the dollar by year end?

You can view more insights from Global Markets Research on their dedicated website. Listen to the The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast.

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