In this video, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research EMEA, discusses why he classifies the year 2024 for commodities as one of balance with bullish (cyclical) forces of a fading monetary policy drag and receding recession fears alongside (structural) influences of ongoing backwardation (supply tightness) offsetting bearish “higher for longer" interest rate dynamics.

Beyond these 2024 forces, the long-term structural challenges miring commodities (decarbonisation, deglobalisation, redistributive demand-led policies and structural underinvestment) remain unresolved – thus, he has called a pause to his supercycle thesis until macro headwinds are behind us. Watch Ehsan's video for more insights

ehsan

Key point

  • 00.20 - Commodities Markets - Calling Pause to our Supercycle thesis but Underinvestment's Revenge will bite

You can view more insights from Global Markets Research on their dedicated website.

Listen to our podcasts on mufgemea.podbean.com or your preferred streaming service. We publish four times each week with insight from EMEA, Japan, the U.S. and MENA.

Follow Derek Halpenny, Lee Hardman, Ehsan Khoman and George Goncalves on Twitter for more global markets insights.