In this video, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research EMEA, discusses why he classifies the year 2024 for commodities as one of balance with bullish (cyclical) forces of a fading monetary policy drag and receding recession fears alongside (structural) influences of ongoing backwardation (supply tightness) offsetting bearish “higher for longer" interest rate dynamics.

Beyond these 2024 forces, the long-term structural challenges miring commodities (decarbonisation, deglobalisation, redistributive demand-led policies and structural underinvestment) remain unresolved – thus, he has called a pause to his supercycle thesis until macro headwinds are behind us. Watch Ehsan's video for more insights


Key point

  • 00.20 - Commodities Markets - Calling Pause to our Supercycle thesis but Underinvestment's Revenge will bite

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